It seems like every day there’s a new technology trend. It can be hard to keep up with the pace of innovation and know which trends will stick around and which are just passing fads. But it’s not impossible to predict what might come next in this fast-paced world of technology.
Each year, for almost two decades, I’ve shared a video of my annual predictions of technological change that we will see over the next year or two. A few years back, Edelman PR went back and calculated my accuracy. Turns out I was correct in my prediction 97% of the time. Many people ask “how do I do it? “. How do I predict the future with such accuracy?
In this post is I will share with you the things I think about when predicting new technology trends.
Factors To Predicting The New Technology
There are several factors to consider when trying to predict the future of technology. Some of these factors include:
1. The rate of innovation and change
The world is changing faster than ever before, and new technologies are emerging at an unprecedented pace. If you want to predict the future, you need to understand how rapidly things are changing. It’s not enough just to keep up with the latest trends. You need to anticipate where things are going, and what new technologies or innovations might emerge in the future.
2. The rate of innovation adoption
It’s important to understand how rapidly things are changing. One of the most important factors to consider is the rate of innovation adoption. The faster new technologies and innovations are adopted, the more likely it is that they will become a permanent part of our lives. If you can anticipate which technologies are going to be adopted quickly, you can get a head start on the competition.
3. Economic conditions
The economy is a major factor in predicting the future of new technology. When people are feeling financially secure, they are more likely to invest in new technology. We see this in the rise of smartphones and other mobile devices when the economy was strong. Conversely, when the economy is weak, people are less likely to invest in new technology, as seen in the decline of sales of desktop PCs.
4. Political conditions
Political conditions also play a role in predicting the future of new technology. For example, when a country is in a state of war, it is more likely to invest in military technology. Conversely, when a country is in a state of peace, it is more likely to invest in civilian technology. Government policies can also have a major impact on the direction of new technology. For example, the US government’s investment in semiconductor manufacturing is likely to have a major impact on the future of that technology.
5. Technological developments
As the world becomes more and more technologically advanced, it actually becomes easier to predict the future of new technology. This is because technological developments play a major role in shaping the future of new technology. Sounds meta doesn’t it. For example, when a new type of computer chip is developed, it opens up possibilities for new types of computers and other devices. In this way, technological developments pave the way for new technology trends.
6. Social and cultural trends
Technology is a product of the people and society it serves. Whether we’re talking about ancient Egyptians, medieval monks, or modern-day Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, technology has always been shaped by cultural trends and societal needs. Social and cultural trends have always predicted what’s coming next in tech.
The computer age, as we know it began in the early 1950s when mathematician John von Neumann and his team at the Institute for Advanced Study began designing the first electronic computer. Why did that happen at that specific time? One reason is that World War II had just ended and, with it, the need for advanced mathematical models to help with military planning. But there were also social and cultural trends at work. In the postwar years, American society was becoming increasingly individualistic and consumer-oriented. The rise of suburbia and the growth of television contributed to a growing fascination with new technology and gadgets.
All of that helped create the perfect environment for the development of digital computers—machines that could store and process vast amounts of information.
Trending Technologies To Watch
In my predictions, I don’t guess the new technologies that will be invented. Instead, I look at the underlying trends that will drive technological development in the years to come. I then use those emerging technologies to inform a vision of possible futures. So, what are some of the new technology trends to watch for?
1. The rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a field of study that deals with the design and development of intelligent computer systems. These systems are able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as understanding natural language, recognizing objects, and solving problems.
Machine learning is a branch of AI that deals with the development of computer systems that can learn from data. These systems can improve their performance over time, without being explicitly programmed. This makes them particularly well-suited for tasks that are difficult to learn by hand, such as recognizing objects in images or videos.
Both artificial intelligence and machine learning are important technology trends to watch for in the years to come. They have the potential to revolutionize the way we interact with technology and are already being used in several applications such as:
- Autonomous vehicles: Autonomous vehicles are cars that can drive themselves. They rely on a variety of sensors and advanced algorithms to navigate the road and avoid obstacles. Many autonomous vehicles are already being used in trial runs, and it’s likely that they will become mainstream in the not-too-distant future.
- Fraud detection: Fraud detection identifies and prevents fraudulent activities, such as credit card fraud or insurance fraud. It’s a difficult task, as fraudsters are constantly coming up with new ways to exploit the system. However, machine learning can detect patterns in data that would be difficult for humans to spot. This makes it an important tool for combating fraud.
- Speech recognition: Speech recognition is the ability of a computer to understand human speech. It has many applications, such as in voice-controlled devices like the Amazon Echo and Google Home, or in customer service applications where customers can speak to a machine to resolve their issues.
- Predictive analytics: Predictive analytics is using data to make predictions about future events. It can predict things such as how likely a customer is to default on a loan, or how many people are likely to buy a product. Predictive analytics is made possible by machine learning, which can learn from past data to make better predictions for the future.
2. The increasing popularity of drones and other unmanned vehicles
Drones and other unmanned vehicles are becoming more popular. They’re used in several applications, such as for military planning or to help with search-and-rescue operations. But it’s important that we maintain strict regulations on the use of these technologies, so they don’t get out of hand. It’s also important that we invest in research to improve the safety and security of these technologies. We don’t want them to be used for malicious purposes, such as spying on people or carrying out terrorist attacks. So, while there are some concerns that need to be addressed, I think it’s safe to say that drones and other unmanned vehicles are here to stay.
3. The growth of virtual reality and augmented reality
Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are two of the most exciting new technologies in the world today. VR is a technology that allows you to immerse yourself in a virtual world, while AR allows you to overlay digital information on top of the real world. Both technologies are growing rapidly, and they have a lot of potential applications.
Some applications of VR and AR that are most likely to take off in the near future include:
- Entertainment: They have already used VR and AR for entertainment, such as in movies and video games. But I think we’ll see even more uses for them in the future. For example, it’s possible that we’ll see VR and AR versions of popular TV shows and movies.
- Education: VR and AR can teach people in a more interactive way. For example, you could use VR to teach someone about the history of a place, or AR to show them how to fix a car.
- Medicine: We can use VR and AR for medical, such as for training surgeons or for helping with rehabilitation.
4. The spread of the internet of things
The internet of things is the name given to a network of physical objects that are connected to the internet. The range of devices that could be part of the internet of things is wide, from smart lightbulbs to high-tech washing machines, but it’s estimated that there will be between 20 billion and 50 billion devices connected to the internet of things by 2030.
There are several reasons the internet of things is growing so rapidly. First, the cost of sensors and other components has been dropping, making it more affordable to connect devices to the internet. Second, there is a growing demand for smart devices, as people become more interested in the idea of controlling their environment through technology. And finally, the internet of things is made possible by the increasing availability of broadband internet, which is becoming more and more widespread.
5. The rise of quantum computing
Quantum computing is a type of computing that uses quantum-mechanical phenomena, such as superposition and entanglement, to perform operations on data. This makes it possible to solve certain problems much faster than traditional computers.
The rise of quantum computing is due to several factors. First, the increasing availability of quantum-mechanical materials has helped the development of quantum computers such as superconductors and semiconductors. Second, there is a growing demand for quantum computing from businesses and governments, who want to take advantage of its speed and efficiency. And finally, the development of quantum computing has been helped by the growth of artificial intelligence, which requires large amounts of computing power.
6. The increasing use of robotics in manufacturing and other industries
There are several reasons for robots are becoming increasingly common. Firstly, robots are becoming more affordable, making them a cost-effective option for businesses. Second, robots are becoming more sophisticated, with the ability to perform a wider range of tasks. And finally, the use of robotics is being helped by the growth of artificial intelligence, which is making it easier to program robots to carry out specific tasks.
A variation on the idea of robots is robotic process automation, which is also increasing in popularity. This is the use of software to automate certain human tasks. For example, you could use robotic process automation to automatically fill in a form online or to check for errors in a document.
7. The development of new materials and nanotechnology
Technology is constantly developing and changing, with new developments becoming available every day. One of the most exciting areas of technology that we’re seeing an increase in is materials science and nanotechnology. They are paving the way for a more sustainable future filled with smarter products, more advanced health care solutions, and better energy sources. So what are they exactly?
Materials science is the study of the structure, properties, and manufacturing of materials. It covers everything from metals and polymers to ceramics and composites. Nanotechnology is the manipulation of matter at the atomic and molecular levels to create new materials and devices. By combining these two areas, we can create new materials and products that are stronger, lighter, and more efficient than ever before.
Some of the most exciting applications of materials science and nanotechnology include:
- Self-healing materials that can repair themselves: This could revolutionize the way we manufacture products, as it would mean that there would be less waste and fewer product failures.
- New medical technologies: Nanotechnology is being used to create tiny sensors that are implanted in the body to track vital signs, develop new ways of delivering drugs to specific parts of the body, and create artificial tissues and organs.
- Sustainable energy sources: Nanotechnology can improve solar cells, make batteries more efficient, and create new types of fuel cells.
- New insulation materials that are more effective and environmentally friendly: With global temperatures on the rise, we need better insulation materials that don’t use harmful chemicals or contribute to climate change.
- More efficient energy storage systems: We need better ways to store energy so that we can use it when we need it, rather than just when the sun is shining, or the wind is blowing.
8. The growth of solar energy and other renewable sources of energy
As the world realizes the dangers of climate change, more and more people are looking for ways to reduce their carbon footprint. One of the best ways to do this is by switching to renewable sources of energy, like solar power.
Solar energy is renewable energy that comes from the sun. It is one of the most abundant sources of energy on the planet, and it is environmentally friendly and sustainable. In addition, solar energy is becoming increasingly affordable, making it a viable option for businesses and homeowners.
Other renewable sources of energy include wind power, hydropower, and geothermal energy. Like solar energy, they are all environmentally friendly and sustainable, and they are also becoming more and more affordable.
As climate change becomes an increasingly pressing issue, we can expect to see a growing demand for renewable sources of energy, like solar and wind power. They are the future of energy, and they are crucial if we want to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and move towards a more sustainable future.
9. The increasing use of blockchain technology
A blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology that can store and share data. They originally developed it as the digital backbone for Bitcoin currency; however, there are many other applications. One such application is using blockchain to securely track ownership rights and financial transactions in the music industry. This has led some people to call blockchain the “new internet.”
Blockchain has the potential to revolutionize many industries. Some areas where it could have the biggest impact are finance, healthcare, logistics, and government. We can expect to see more and more businesses and governments using blockchain to power their operations in the future.
One of the key features of blockchain is that it is secure and tamper-proof. This makes it a great option for businesses that need to store sensitive data. In addition, blockchain eliminates the need for third-party intermediaries, which can save businesses time and money.
As blockchain technology continues to develop, we can expect to see even more innovative applications. It is a game-changer, and it has the potential to revolutionize many industries.
10. The spread of 5G wireless technology
The fifth generation of wireless technology, 5G, is set to revolutionize the way we use the internet. It will be much faster than 4G, with download speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second, and it will have a much wider reach, covering a larger area and penetrating deeper into buildings. This will make it perfect for applications such as augmented reality and self-driving cars, which require a lot of data to be transmitted quickly and smoothly. Combined with edge computing, new immersive experiences will emerge.
These are just a few of the key trends to watch for in the years ahead. As you can see, they cover a wide range of areas, from computing and communications to energy and manufacturing. So whatever your area of interest, there’s likely to be a trend that will affect it. Keep an eye on these trends so they will prepare you for the future of new technology.
Challenges With Predicting The New Technology And Its Impact
The future is always difficult to predict, and the field of new technology is no exception. There are a number of challenges involved in predicting the impact of new technology.
1. Difficult to see how the new technology will be used.
We may have a good idea of the possibilities, but it’s hard to know which of these will be realized and which will remain possibilities. We can make some guesses.
There are a few things we can do to see better how the new technology will be used. First, we can look at how it is like technologies that have already been used. Second, we can try to imagine how people might use it in different ways. Finally, we can look at the potential applications of the technology and see if any of them stand out as particularly useful.
Even if we can’t predict exactly how the new technology will be used, by doing these things we can get a better idea of its potential. And that can help us to be ready for whatever comes next.
2. The new technology can take a long time to catch on.
It may be obvious in hindsight how a particular technology will change things, but it’s often difficult to see this at the time. There are a few things you can do to be more confident in the timing of a new technology catching on:
- Look at how people are using the technology today. Are they using it to make their lives easier or better? If so, then there’s a good chance that the technology will catch on more broadly in the future.
- Look at how the technology has been developed and adopted in the past. This can give you a sense of how long it typically takes for new technology to catch on.
- Pay attention to what industry experts are saying about the technology. If they’re bullish on it, then there’s a good chance that it will be more widely adopted in the future.
In the end, it’s impossible to know for sure whether a new technology will catch on. But by looking at these different factors, you can increase your chances of making a smart bet on its success.
3. Predicting the impact of new technology can be risky.
It’s possible to make a wrong prediction and end up looking foolish. In addition, there’s the possibility that new technology will have unforeseen consequences, some of which may be negative.
Despite these challenges, it’s still important to predict the impact of new technology. Doing so can help us prepare for the future and take advantage of the opportunities that new technology offers. And even if we’re not always right, it’s still useful to examine the potential implications of new technology so that we can be ready for anything.
Time Frame For Predicting Technologies
Timeboxing predictions into different timeframes will focus on the predictions that align with the planning cycle of the organization. There are long-term, midterm, and short-term predictions.
1. Long-term predictions look 8 or more years into the future. These types of predictions are made when there is a need for strategic planning and companies want to get ahead of the curve. For example, if you can predict that a technology will take off in 10 years, you can secure a head start on developing products and services that use that technology.
2. Midterm predictions look 3-8 years into the future. These are useful for predicting what the organization should focus on next. This type of planning can help with things like budgeting and forecasting.
3. Short-term predictions look at the next 0-3 years. They can be helpful for tactical decision-making and are often used to decide about what products or services to develop or invest in now.
A Word Of Prediction Caution
Technology predictions should be made on a case-by-case basis. Not all technologies are created equal, and not all of them will be worth predicting. Some technologies are more important than others, and some have the potential to change things more dramatically.
In order to make good predictions, it’s important to assess each technology on its own merits. Ask yourself questions like:
- How important is this technology?
- How likely is it to catch on?
- What could be the potential implications of this technology?
- What are the risks and challenges associated with it?
Once you have a good understanding of the technology, you can start making predictions about its future.
As with all things, it’s important to exercise caution when making predictions about the future of technology. There are a lot of things that can change and disrupt the forecast. In addition, it’s always possible that a technology will fail completely. That’s why it’s important to be realistic about the predictions you make. Don’t make predictions you can’t back up with evidence or sound reasoning. And be prepared to change your mind if new information comes to light.
In the end, predicting the future of technology is always a bit of a gamble.
But by considering all the different factors, you can give yourself the best chance of making a smart bet.
Using Outside Experts
It’s important to remember that someone who is an outsider can bring fresh eyes to a situation and give a prediction that might be closer to reality, instead of predictions made by those who are in the industry.
For example, when the recording industry predicted that CDs would eventually make vinyl records obsolete. The opposite happened: despite how quickly technology changes, this classic form of listening to music has come back in a big way.
Sometimes, those who are closest to a technology can get too attached to it and cannot see beyond their own biases. This is where outside experts can be very helpful. They can provide an unbiased perspective on a technology’s future and offer predictions that might be more accurate.
In addition, outside experts can bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to the table that insiders might not have. They can offer insights into how a technology might be used and what implications it could have.
Why Techtrend?
There are a lot of things to consider when making predictions about the future of technology, and it’s important to have a variety of perspectives in order to get a well-rounded view.
That’s why Techtrend is such a valuable resource for predicting trending technologies. We have experts from all different backgrounds who can offer insights into technological innovation.
In addition, we have a team of analysts with in-depth knowledge who are constantly tracking new and emerging technologies. We make sure that we’re up-to-date on the latest trends so that we can provide our clients with accurate predictions.
At Techtrend, we take our job seriously when it comes to predicting the future of technology. We want to make sure that our clients are always ahead of the curve and can make the most of new opportunities as they arise.
If you’re looking for reliable predictions about the future of technology, then you should definitely consider Techtrend. Contact us at hello@techtrend.com. We would be happy to discuss your specific needs and see how we can help.
